{
  "status": "provisional_forecast_release",
  "publishable": true,
  "checks": {
    "unique_forecast_ids": true,
    "all_current_populated_precincts": true,
    "each_current_registration_matches": true,
    "all_77_county_registration_totals": true,
    "complete_current_geometry": true,
    "finite_bounded_estimates": true,
    "improves_same_cycle_baseline_both_elections": true,
    "improves_county_only_both_elections": true,
    "earlier_error_band_forward_coverage_at_least_80pct": true
  },
  "scope": "Aggregate forecast conditional on September 23 registration; not a calibrated probability forecast.",
  "boundary_provenance": "User supplied pct_2020 and confirmed no precinct boundary changes since 2022. Congressional boundaries are outside this turnout model.",
  "validation": {
    "publishable": false,
    "status": "completed_development_evaluation",
    "methods": {
      "area": [
        {
          "year": 2022,
          "metrics": {
            "prediction": {
              "rows": 1969,
              "registered_voter_weight": 2293189.0,
              "weighted_actual_rate": 0.5025887530421609,
              "weighted_predicted_rate": 0.5623043442148271,
              "weighted_bias": 0.05971559117266563,
              "weighted_mae": 0.06338238857638862,
              "weighted_rmse": 0.07500484930262001,
              "weighted_r2": 0.3427991824598249
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            "baseline": {
              "rows": 1969,
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              "weighted_actual_rate": 0.5025887530421609,
              "weighted_predicted_rate": 0.5614824182280581,
              "weighted_bias": 0.05889366518589737,
              "weighted_mae": 0.07966772415478295,
              "weighted_rmse": 0.10638237378124343,
              "weighted_r2": -0.32208312807513395
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            "county_model": {
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              "weighted_predicted_rate": 0.561231264276464,
              "weighted_bias": 0.05864251123430383,
              "weighted_mae": 0.07970979275372034,
              "weighted_rmse": 0.10508919549969284,
              "weighted_r2": -0.29013614882677596
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          "county_count": 77,
          "no_local_history": 8,
          "count_diagnostic": {
            "predicted_participation": 1298942.9249476707,
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            "precinct_mean_absolute_count_error": 147.67822440472924,
            "method": "County August registration projections allocated by earlier same-cycle spatially mapped registration shares. No holdout counts used in allocation or centering. Precincts without earlier history receive no count projection; target reporting-unit selection remains retrospective."
          }
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "metrics": {
            "prediction": {
              "rows": 1974,
              "registered_voter_weight": 2441753.0,
              "weighted_actual_rate": 0.6449214969736906,
              "weighted_predicted_rate": 0.6371979074371978,
              "weighted_bias": -0.0077235895364933865,
              "weighted_mae": 0.03225977648149646,
              "weighted_rmse": 0.04270682804048185,
              "weighted_r2": 0.7553894181256053
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            "baseline": {
              "rows": 1974,
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              "weighted_predicted_rate": 0.69527296832773,
              "weighted_bias": 0.050351471354039064,
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          },
          "forward_error_band": {
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      "cvap": [
        {
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          "metrics": {
            "prediction": {
              "rows": 1969,
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          "year": 2024,
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            "prediction": {
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            "method": "County August registration projections allocated by earlier same-cycle spatially mapped registration shares. No holdout counts used in allocation or centering. Precincts without earlier history receive no count projection; target reporting-unit selection remains retrospective."
          },
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      ]
    },
    "boundary_provenance": "User supplied pct_2020 and confirmed no precinct boundary changes since 2022. Congressional boundaries are outside this turnout model.",
    "limits": [
      "2022\u20132026 precinct stability relies on user confirmation and the supplied OU file, not an independently obtained boundary-change certificate.",
      "Unmapped reporting units are not redistributed without source evidence.",
      "Rate errors are scored with observed registrations; count diagnostics use county August projections and prior precinct shares, not a validated September precinct registration snapshot.",
      "Crosswalks produce allocated estimates, not observed current-boundary historical turnout.",
      "Two development elections cannot provide untouched independent confirmation; no probability interval is claimed."
    ]
  },
  "limitations": [
    "2022\u20132026 precinct stability relies on user confirmation and the supplied OU file, not an independently obtained boundary-change certificate.",
    "Unmapped reporting units are not redistributed without source evidence.",
    "Rate errors are scored with observed registrations; count diagnostics use county August projections and prior precinct shares, not a validated September precinct registration snapshot.",
    "Crosswalks produce allocated estimates, not observed current-boundary historical turnout.",
    "Two development elections cannot provide untouched independent confirmation; no probability interval is claimed."
  ],
  "policy": "Checks were set during retrospective development, not preregistered. No independent-validation or future-coverage guarantee is made.",
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    "prj": "84cf5b9a3c1a444f83ac30ff76f8c5035990223027ba69b2f4d628388adcbd65",
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  "evaluation_sha256": "fd51c1676ddffcf21168d3a2efb77a808173aabf0862a63beeeee891c311cccd",
  "code_sha256": "1a2b74cb4be23a86f186796d93be6bcb684c8fac9509a0ccf36c9fed5c7773d7"
}